Are We on the Rebound
For those with anything invested in the housing market, there’s finally some good news. Recent reports show that the housing market is beginning to show early signs of a rebound – even if those signs are still quite small.
Housing sales are beginning to build
The U.S. Census Bureau recently reported that home sale figures for February 2009 actually jumped an extra 14,000 from projected sales figures. Though such an increase is quite small in relation to the size of the country, the important thing is that an increase did occur. This is because the February jump in home sales was actually the first time the market has experienced an increase since July 2008.
The National Association of Realtors also recently reported good news, announcing that their data showed a rise of 5.1% in existing home sales for February. This brought their seasonally adjusted rate from 4.49 million units sold based on January data up to 4.72 million units based on February data.
Consumers are urged not to be overly excited about the news though, or at least not just yet. Housing analysts say that little can be made of the recent increase. They caution that three months of increases are needed in order to say that the market is recovering.
All the same, this is the first step.
Sales are up though prices are down
Part of the reason new home sales may be at last on the rebound is because the median home sales price has gone down roughly 18% from prices a year ago. Whereas February 2008 numbers show a national median sales price around $245,000, February 2009 saw its median at just under $201,000.
Construction of new homes is also up
To add to the recent good news regarding the housing market, the Commerce Department reported last week on a surge in construction of new homes. Their data show new home construction for the month of February jumped 22%, from 477,000 homes for January to 583,000 in February.
Refinances and home loans are rising
Thanks to the historically low interest rates for mortgage loans, many lenders are seeing an increase in applications for new home loans. Most applicants are hoping to refinance existing loans, though a fair number of new home buyers are applying for home loans as well.
The Mortgage Bankers Association stated a short time ago that the number of Americans applying for home loans was up 30% from previous numbers.
Government programs are aiding the housing recovery process
Thanks to the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 signed into law on February 4th by President Obama, there is more potential good news for recovery of the housing market.
The home buying season is expected to pick up speed going into the summer months. It will be aided in part by the generous $8,000 tax credit available to all new homeowners who purchase homes before December 1st, 2009.
On top of that, the Federal Reserve Board recently initiated several new programs designed to drive new housing development. One such program will buy distressed mortgage bonds from banks in an effort to help them stabilize their lending programs.
Another newly funded program will pump large lenders like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac with billions of dollars so they can forgive borrowers in default and finance the purchase of toxic mortgages. This move should help slow the rate of foreclosures throughout the country.
Turnover in builders is still expected
Even though data from the housing market is showing definite signs of improvement, the one major burden the market still carries is depressed consumer confidence. Analysts expect this confidence to stay low as long as unemployment numbers continue to rise. As of the beginning of April 2009, unemployment was climbing at a rate of 500,000 – 650,000 jobs lost per week.
Unless there is an unusually large jump in new home sales, it’s likely that many builders will have to close their doors before 2009 is over. Even with the market stabilizing, few companies have enough reserves to last another year in this now four-year-long housing recession.
The stock market is rallying
Another sign of potential economic improvement, which includes the housing market, is the fact that the stock market has been steadily climbing. In fact, for the month of March 2009, the Dow showed its strongest four-week rally in over 70 years. To market analysts, this is the sign of a bright horizon – even despite the few clouds that remain (such as the weak labor market).
The drop in sales just may be over
One thing most analysts agree on is that the worst of the housing slump is already behind us. Despite this, many are wary to predict a full-blown recovery any time soon. They agree that it’s certainly on its way, but that a long-term, sustained recovery may yet be a ways off.
